13.05 OPINION: China Fears US-Russia 'War of Nerves'

WASHINGTON, May 13 (RIA Novosti), Lyudmila Chernova - China feels threatened by the growing polarization between the US and Russia over Ukraine, which in the end might reduce Beijing’s strategic maneuverability, says Jonathan Holslag, of the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies.

“Russia, China and the US are now in the war of nerves,” Holslag told RIA Novosti Tuesday. “The more the relations between Moscow and Washington get tensed, the harder it will be for China to maintain good relations with both powers.”

The expert noted that America is now trying to prevent China from drifting towards Moscow.

“The worst case scenario for the United State now would be strengthening of the Moscow-Beijing axis which would make it even more difficult in the future to tackle difficult issues ranging from Ukraine and Middle East to any place in Africa,” he explained.

Holslag noted that despite numerous disagreements between China and the United States there is a good understanding between the two sides when it comes to the situation in Sudan, Central Africa and Nigeria.

The expert has cited a very senior Chinese diplomat as telling him that China considers South Sudan as “America’s baby,” and Chinese officials are disappointed with its support of the West.

“South Sudan is sliding into a very difficult political period, and from the Chinese viewpoint, the West, and especially the United States, has not done enough to facilitate stability,” the expert asserted. “On the other hand, China is heavily dependent on South Sudan for its oil."

Most of the oil produced in Eastern Africa is excavated in South Sudan. Besides, China has already suffered quite a lot of damage because of the facilities that had to be shut down, as well as having to evacuate a lot of Chinese workers from South Sudan.

Holslag suggested that talks were already going on “quietly behind the scenes” to stop the standoff from escalating any further.

The expert noted that although there is not a great deal of strategic competition going on in the African continent, there are certain competing economic interests. Both countries aim at access to strategic resources.

“Economically China is at the lead in Africa,” Holslag stated, adding that credit and loans have been a very important political lever.

“I think indeed it has permitted the Chinese government to build up its influence quite rapidly in the last few years, which is quite challenging to a lot of Western countries because the way China disburses its loans is different from European and Western countries’ who attach more political conditions to loans and demand more transparency in using loans,” he said.

Holslag noted that politically the American influence is still much larger in Africa.

“The US has more boots on the ground and has a much more robust security policy towards Africa,” he emphasized. “The question is whether China will follow the American example in the next few years, which is in a more robust and assertive way to protect its economic interests, investments, Chinese citizens present all over the country.”